According to the UK Gambling Act 2005, Section 14(5), Oraclum Intelligence Systems Ltd, 23 Arnold Close, Hauxton, Cambridge CB22 5FN, United Kingdom, company number: 10141044, henceforth Oraclum, determines the following:
RULES OF THE COMPETITION
“PREDICT AND EARN”
Article 1
Oraclum is organizing a global competition in forecasting selected assets and stock market indices, on a weekly basis, while handing out an award to the top twenty participants at the end of the stipulated period. These Rules determine the conditions of participation, the timeline of the competition, and all other rules necessary to convey the competition.
The competition does not involve luck or chance, it does not constitute financial advice of any kind, and it only measures a person’s skill in forecasting. The users do not have to pay any contribution to participate in the competition.
These Rules will be published on the Internet application ORCA Survey Competition on July 3rd 2023 the latest. When published, they apply with immediate effect for all participants.
Article 2
The competition is being conducted on the Internet application ORCA Survey Competition, on the website https://survey.oraclum.co.uk/stock-market for which a social media account (Twitter, Linkedin) or a Gmail account is necessary in order to enter. The competition will be held continuously over the year, separated into four quarters, each containing 12 to 13 weeks, depending on the quarter. The survey is repeated each week with the same questions on predicting the selected asset classes or indices.
Article 3
The competition is opened on Tuesday 8 AM (EST) of each week with forecasting questions relating to the prediction by the end of trading day of Friday in the same week, 4 PM (EST). The competition is opened for 24 hours, closing on Wednesday 8 AM (EST).
Article 4
The competition will be active for the entire year, across each quarter (Q1: January 1st to March 31st, Q2: April 1st to June 30th, Q3: July 1st to September 30th, October 1st to December 31st). At the end of each quarter we will pay out the prize to the winners (defined in Article 9).
Article 5
All users may remain anonymous if they wish, and an alphanumeric code name will be assigned to them, or they can reveal their Twitter, Linkedin or Gmail usernames to be shown on the competition Leaderboard (generated automatically). The Leaderboard will update weekly, and the prize for top performance will be awarded at the end of the competition.
Article 6
A user can only participate once as a private individual. If it is determined that the same person is participating with more than one account this person will be disqualified. Each user can change their answers as many times as they wish until the competition is finished.
Article 7
The competition is organized in the following way. Each participant fills out the entire survey and answers the designated “forecasting” questions – the questions which are clearly marked with the following sentence: “this question is counted towards your forecasting score”. Each question herein will be a “forecasting” question:
A: What will be the value of the 10-year US Treasury yield by the end of trading day on [specified date, Friday of the same week] (16:00 EST)?
B: What will be the value of the DJI by the end of trading day on [specified date, Friday of the same week] (16:00 EST)?
C: What will be the value of the S&P500 by the end of trading day on [specified date, Friday of the same week] (16:00 EST)?
D: What will be the value of the QQQ ETF by the end of trading day on [specified date, Friday of the same week] (16:00 EST)?
E: What will be the value of the VIX index by the end of trading day on [specified date, Friday of the same week] (16:00 EST)?
F: What will be the value of AAPL by the end of trading day on [specified date, Friday of the same week] (16:00 EST)?
The final score will be determined based on the last answer the user has given. A user may fill out the survey as many times as they wish until it closes.
The competition Leaderboard will list the best performers each week, and award them the final prize at the end of the competition as specified in Article 9.
Article 8
To determine the score for each week, we use the following precision formula, Pi,W, , rounded up to two decimal points:
Pi,W=Σ|Xi – xi| / Di
Where xi is the user’s prediction and Xi is the actual value of the selected asset (rounded up to two decimal points), and Di is the range (difference between the maximum and minimum) of predictions from the top 80% of users who were the closest to the actual value, for each question i=A, B, C, D. Subscript W denotes a weekly score.
The goal is to get a value of P as low as possible to 0. The score in each week will be added for each user’s prediction to their final monthly score:
PM=ΣPi,W
Awards for performance will be given based on this monthly score.
If a user misses one week, they will get a punishment score of 5 for that week (getting to zero is the goal). They may still feature on the Leaderboard, but this will reduce their probability of winning the competition.
Article 9
Prizes.
At the end of the competition, based on their cumulative score from each week, as described in Article 7, users are featured in the final ranking. The prize money pot is 8,000 (eight thousand) United States dollars (USD), and is to be distributed to the top 30 performers as featured on the final ranking, in the following way:
1st place = 1,400 USD
2nd place = 1,000 USD
3rd place = 800 USD
4th place = 600 USD
5th place = 525 USD
6th place = 425 USD
7th place = 325 USD
8th place = 250 USD
9th place = 225 USD
10th place = 200 USD
11th to 20th place = 125 USD each
21st to 30th place = 100 USD each
The prize money is paid directly to the bank accounts of the first 30 users.
The ranking is determined based on user precision, rounded up to two decimal points. If there is more than one person with the exact same score, Oraclum will pay out the prize to more than one person, with a maximum of three people receiving the prize, while splitting the prize to either two or three persons. For more than 3 persons with the exact same score, Oraclum will choose, at random, which three get paid the prize.
Article 10
In addition to quarterly prizes defined in Article 9, at the end of each calendar year, as per our annual leaderboard, the top 20 participants overall will receive a distribution of 3% (three percent) of the total profits generated by Oraclum Capital LLC, the management company of the ORCA BASON Fund. Oraclum Capital LLC is fully owned by Oraclum Intelligence Systems, the organizer of this competition. The distribution of the 3% of the company’s profits to the top 40 performers will be done the following way:
1st place = 0.375%
2nd place = 0.27%
3rd place = 0.225%
4th place = 0.18%
5th place = 0.15%
6th place = 0.135%
7th place = 0.12%
8th place = 0.105%
9th place = 0.09%
10th place = 0.075%
11th to 20th place = 0.06% each
21st to 30th place = 0.0375% each
31st to 40th place = 0.03% each
The prize money is paid directly to the bank accounts of the first 40 users, as with the quarterly prizes. The annual ranking is determined the same way as described in Articles 8 and 9. We will inform the annual winners at least 7 days after the end of the calendar year, December 31st each year.
Article 11
After being notified of their prize, the winner will have 21 working days to deliver their account number, their full name, and the name of their bank to Oraclum in order for their reward to be paid out. This data will be used only for payment purposes and will thereafter be deleted from Oraclum’s database, notifying the user that the data has been deleted.
Oraclum will pay the prize within 14 days of the winner notifying them. If the winner does not send over their details in 21 working days, they lose the right to the prize, and it will be paid out to whoever is next in line on the Leaderboard.
Article 12
Oraclum holds the right to end the competition in case of any unforeseen circumstances. In any chance of this occurring all users will be notified on the competition website.
Article 13
In case of any dispute between the competition users and Oraclum, the Cambridge County Court in England, United Kingdom, holds exclusive jurisdiction.
Article 14
By participating in the competition each user accepts all the rules and obligations determined by these Rules.
In Cambridge, December 30th 2024.
Oraclum Intelligence Systems Ltd.
23 Arnold Close, Hauxton
Cambridge CB22 5FN
United Kingdom