Predictions
You predict prices of stock market indices every Tuesday starting from 8:00am EST, for the Friday close.
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Predict and earn
Join our weekly survey to predict financial markets. Predict accurately, stay consistent, and we reward you with cash each quarter.
Join The Competition
$32,000 Prize
We award an $8000 cash prize across the top 30 predictors each quarter.
3% Fund Profits
At the end of each year, we distribute 3% of our fund's profits across the top 40 annual performers.
Our story
Oraclum Capital LLC (ORCA) is a US hedge fund that uses wisdom of crowds and network analysis to predict weekly market movements. It started trading in February 2023, after a year and a half of successfully predicting weekly market moves and live trading its predictions.
Using the same methodology we have successfully predicted various events including Brexit, Trump election in 2016, and the Biden victory in 2020. Follow us on Twitter, our web page, or our blog.
64%
Accuracy
On average we tend to be correct 64% of the time in our predictions.
$30M
AUM
$30 AUM as of January 2025
67%
Preformance
We made a 67% gross return since inception
Newsletter
Substack
6 Minute Read
2024: A year in review
38% year-to-date returns (gross, 30% net), 65% since fund inception (Feb last year). Comfortably beating all of our benchmarks, with a low correlation to the market (0.13) and low volatility.
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Substack
3 Minute Read
The ORCA project: building a billion dollar hedge fund
The ORCA hedge fund started this year with $2m AUM, gathered mostly from my own personal network, and a few eager subscribers of this blog. They expressed a firm belief that our little hedge fund can indeed grow to become an industry titan. The innovative strategy we developed was attractive enough to bring in at least a few million.
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Substack
5 Minute Read
New competition for 2025: bigger rewards, more winners!
Quarterly reward pot is now $8,000 (instead of $5,000). Top 30 users get rewarded each quarter (instead of top 20). Top 40 users get rewarded in the annual competition (instead of top 20), where the prize is still 3% of the Fund’s earnings for next year.
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Frequently asked questions
Just sign up via this website - you can use Twitter, Gmail, or Linkedin to sign up for the competition. You can do it anytime, but keep in mind that the survey is active each week only for 24 hours; from Tuesday 8:00AM EST to Wednesday 8:00AM EST.
Also, we reward consistency, so if you're consistent week-in week-out you have higher chances of landing in the top 20 and winning the prize. The survey is simple, you answer a few questions for 6 indicators that we track each week: the 10-year US Treasury yield, Dow Jones Index, S&P500 Index, QQQ index, VIX index, and AAPL stock. We ask you about direction, and to give us the value of each of these for Friday at market close, 4:00 PM EST. It takes 5 minutes of your time (10mins if you put in some effort!) per week.
Also, we reward consistency, so if you're consistent week-in week-out you have higher chances of landing in the top 20 and winning the prize. The survey is simple, you answer a few questions for 6 indicators that we track each week: the 10-year US Treasury yield, Dow Jones Index, S&P500 Index, QQQ index, VIX index, and AAPL stock. We ask you about direction, and to give us the value of each of these for Friday at market close, 4:00 PM EST. It takes 5 minutes of your time (10mins if you put in some effort!) per week.
Each quarter we award top 30 performers who split a 8,000$ cash prize. You will be able to follow your rank for the quarter or the year on our quarterly and annual leaderboard. To be eligible for the reward you need to add your email to your profile. If you fill in the survey regularly each week and your predictions are accurate enough, at the end of the year you may be eligible for the annual cash prize which is awarded to top 40 annual performers. This prize is also a cash prize that distributes 3% of Oraclum Capital's annual profits (not the money we make for our investors, but the money we make as a fund). All rewards will be paid out to your bank account.
We started testing the survey with real money in May 2021, and have been doing it consistently for a year and a half before we opened the fund to investors. In this entire time, both during our testing phase, and during our live phase (from February 2023) we have kept roughly 70% accuracy of our predictions. This means that we accurately estimated the direction of markets in 70% of all weeks when we traded. Our testing was live trading with our own money. We made 57% in 2021 and 73% in 2022, before we decided it was time to take on external investors.